A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
