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Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles produce nearly 5x more global warming emissions than official data indicate, as per a new analysis.

Growing Discrepancy In Lab and Actual Emissions

Statistics reveals that PHEVs release just 19% lower CO₂ than traditional petrol and diesel cars, based on analysis conducted by a advocacy organization. That contrasts significantly with laboratory estimates, which assumed a 75% reduction in emissions.

Analysts examined data from onboard fuel consumption meters of eight hundred thousand vehicles registered in the EU from 2021 and 2023. The team discovered that actual CO₂ output from PHEVs in 2023 were nearly five times greater than official estimates, up from three and a half times in 2021.

“Actual CO2 output are increasing, while official emissions are decreasing,” said a lead analyst involved in the report. “This discrepancy is widening and poses a significant issue. As a result, PHEVs emit nearly as much as gasoline vehicles.”

Key Reasons Behind the Emissions Gap

Researchers attributed most of the difference to inflated estimates of the “electric driving share” – the ratio of kilometers driven in electric power relative to total distance. The team found that just 27% of driving was completed in EV mode, while lab assumptions assumed over four-fifths.

Even, when operating in electric mode, pollution amounts were significantly higher than lab estimates. That happened because EV motors were not strong enough to function alone, resulting to combustion motors using fossil fuels for almost one-third of the travel covered in EV mode.

Policy and Financial Consequences

According to estimates, the underestimation of PHEV emissions allowed four large carmaker groups to avoid more than €5bn in penalties between 2021 and 2023, by artificially simplifying adherence with European Union average fleet CO₂ targets.

Additionally, drivers of PHEVs could spend about €500 more per year in running expenses than is assumed under laboratory tests.

“The strong claims that automakers often promote about their plug-in hybrid cars are clearly far from the mark,” stated a transport analyst. “Buyers are being duped into believing that by purchasing a PHEV, they are benefiting the planet and saving money. In reality, PHEVs are only slightly better than regular gas and diesel cars in terms of energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, and operating costs.”

Political Debate and Industry Lobbying

Hybrid cars have recently been brought back into policy discussions as automakers have pressed the European Union to weaken CO₂ standards. A proposed ban on sales of new combustion engine cars in 2035 has faced heavy lobbying from the car sector and opposition from member states with large car manufacturing.

Several high-level officials have suggested PHEVs as a possible “flexibility” solution to introduce in the regulation.

An independent energy policy specialist, who was unaffiliated with the research, called the report a “very useful addition” after years in which segments of the car sector claimed there was too little data to accurately assess actual emissions.

“The results show, beyond any doubt, that the gap between lab and actual PHEV energy use and CO₂ emissions is much, much larger than for petrol or conventional vehicles,” they said. “Any regulatory adjustments regarding PHEVs should be implemented with extreme caution and in the light of this evidence.”