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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence wins the prize. However, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or just the greatest surprise.

Yet this year's competition is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime underperformers improving in unison. During an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against several other elite coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a normal year!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

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